NFIB says economy growing, but jobs lagging

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(The Center Square) – The National Federation of Independent Business released it's job report Thursday afternoon noting that the federal jobs report expected Friday will likely be delayed by the partial government shutdown.

NFIB's September Small Business Economic Trends survey found that 32% of all owners surveyed reported job openings they could not fill in the current period. That's unchanged from August. The last time unfilled job openings fell below 32% was in July 2020. Twenty-eight percent reported openings for skilled workers (unchanged), and 13% have openings for unskilled labor (unchanged).

A seasonally adjusted net 16% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up 1 point from August and the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Hiring plans are at their highest level since January, when President Donald Trump took office.

Overall, 58% of owners reported hiring or trying to hire in September, up 5 points from August. Fifty percent (88% of those hiring or trying to hire) of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill (up 7 points). Twenty-nine percent reported few qualified applicants (up 3 points), and 21% reported none (up 4 points), according to the NFIB.

"The economy appears to have caught a second wind after sputtering through most of the year. But it's close to a 'jobless recovery,' as few new jobs are being created and total employment is stagnant," the NFIB report noted. "Main Street job openings remain historically high, with owners reporting few applicants who are qualified. While a recession appears unlikely, small business owners continue to experience economic uncertainty as many owners continue to grapple with labor imbalances."

The NFIB report comes after the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in September, according to a report Wednesday from private payroll company ADP. The ADP report found pay was up 4.5% year-over-year according to the September ADP National Employment Report produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

"Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring," said Nela Richardson, chief economist for ADP.

ADP conducted its annual preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report in September based on the full-year 2024 results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This recalibration resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in September compared to pre-benchmarked data.

"The trend was unchanged; job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors," the report noted.